When learning to drive I remember
being told that using your mirrors are very important to see what is behind or
next to you; but even more importantly is to check your blind spots because a
car, a motorcycle, or someone on a bicycle could have come up alongside of you
without being noticed. I have driven many cars and the shape of the frame of
the car can play into how tricky blind spots are, one car is not necessarily
like another. Sometimes the frame of the car can make it so that you don’t
notice what is there, but the mirror will show you. Other times what the mirror
does not reflect that hidden area, you have to manually check by ensuring you
look over your shoulder. A lapse in judgment can have a range of consequences.
If you are lucky nothing is there. If you are unlucky hopefully it is a minor error.
Other mistakes can lead to a serious crash. In decision-making what we do not
realize is that there are “frame traps” that are causing us to miss important
information because we are moving so quickly and simplifying what we know along
the way. So how do we learn to check the blind spots for something intangible
like decision-making? Understanding that these traps exist, or “knowing is half
the battle”, is the first part; learning to manage these traps and what tools
you can call on to do better can help
avoid them.
When I think of traps the first
imagery that comes to mind is from Looney Toons when Elmer Fudd is always
trying to trap Bugs Bunny in any way possible. I think of the absurdity of Elmer
using a giant bear trap just for one pesky rabbit. Most of the time Elmer’s
overconfidence in using something more complex than necessary is his downfall.
A larger trap does not necessarily mean a larger chance for gaining success. Every
once in a while Elmer gets it almost right and tricks Bugs Bunny, much to Sir
Bunny’s dismay, because there was something that he didn’t see and was blind to
the trap. Usually Bugs Bunny knows when something looks too good to be true and
does not fall for the illusion of completeness.
This week the Wharton text outlines three traps that I have fallen into
and I am now on the lookout for overconfidence, illusion of completeness, and
frame blindness.
Each of these can be difficult to
manage and in my experience more than one of these could be combined,
ultimately leading to a decision disaster. Overconfidence is a tough one to
crack. There are many times that I truly believe I know something or have
remembered it correctly. I mean, I do not check how to spell my name before I
write it. Eventually things just fall into the category of something you know like
making a sandwich or driving to work. “Most
of us suffer from a well-documented tendency to overestimate what we know,
which contributes to our tendency to overvalue the relevance of our own frames
and undervalue the relevance of others” (Hoch, Kunreuther & Gunther, 2001,
p. 140). I used to live about two hours from New Orleans and had gone to
concerts there. When I bought tickets to Ashlee Simpson I drove to New Orleans,
checked into the hotel that I chose near the venue and set off to walk to the
concert. Lots of people were going to the New Orleans Arena… in New Orleans Voo
Doo gear. My boyfriend asked me repeatedly if I was sure we did not need
directions. I knew exactly how to get to that arena that we walked to; I just did
not know that there was another arena, the New Orleans Waterfront Arena.
“Overconfidence in existing frames and illusions of the complete picture can
cause bright people to filter out opposing voices” (Hoch, Kunreuther &
Gunther, 2001, p. 141). Korean Proverb says “Even if you know the way. Ask one
more Time.”
Overconfidence
amounts to an 'error' of judgment or decision-making, because it leads to
overestimating one's capabilities and/or underestimating an opponent, the
difficulty of a task, or possible risks. It is therefore no surprise that
overconfidence has been blamed throughout history for high-profile disasters.
(Johnson & Fowler, 2011, n.p.)
I could have framed my decision differently.
In hindsight I should have identified and changed my inadequate frames. I could
have questioned my reference points and asked myself why it is such a burden or
annoyance to just do a quick confirmation (Hoch, Kunreuther & Gunther,
2001). If I was right, I would still be right even if I did a double check and
if I am wrong then it is better to sort it out sooner than later. I came very
close to missing the concert entirely and wrecking my plans. In other words, to
avoid overconfidence, check yourself before you wreck yourself.
I would like to say this was the
first and only time I had a misstep, but it is not. Sometimes you can be
operating with incorrect frames and not realize you are even doing so (Hoch,
Kunreuther & Gunther, 2001). I am loath to even mention this really dumb
thing I did long ago even though I had really good intentions. Frames simplify
our focus and attention on what we deem most relevant so we can quickly decide
and move on (Hoch, Kunreuther & Gunther, 2001). In 2000 I was sixteen and
had a 1998 Mazda 626. I wanted to keep my car really nice so I decided to do an
intensive cleaning. My friend lived in what I called the woods and pine sap
dotted the hood of my car. I zipped upstairs, grabbed the green and yellow
Scotch-Brite sponge and went down to try to polish the stubborn sap spots off
my car. As my car dried I noticed that my car was a different color, much
lighter, than the rest of my dark green car in little circular places. I
figured once my car finished drying it would be back to normal. Instead of sap
marking up my hood, I had my handiwork to thank since I removed the sap and the
paint. The wrapping on the sponge said non-scratch and you can scrub the mess
out of dishes so why not a car? I was blind to the major difference to a plate
and a car hood. We look out at the world through one window while failing to
use views from other windows (Hoch, Kunreuther & Gunther, 2001). There was
a lot of risk of making the decision to clean my car on my own; it seemed clear
cut like I was not missing anything. My car was ruined and had to be repainted.
My poor results and bitter surprise was a case of frame misfit. Plates are not
cars. Who knew? Apparently everyone but me!
In another assignment this week
A632.3.2.DQ- Framing Better Decisions I discussed a Toolkit for Better Framing
and several tools that come into play when I am on the job with my students
wearing my advising cap. My jobs as an academic advisor is to help students
eliminate an illusion of incompleteness. It seems simple that after the
successful completion of 12 classes you can be degree complete with your Master’s
degree. I will pick on myself again for a second; my undergraduate degree is a
B.S. in Paralegal Studies. I did not have to take actually any of the six
classes at the undergraduate level that can be required at ERAU for certain programs.
Although I do have a Bachelor’s if I wanted to do the Master of Science in
Systems Engineering I would have to stop and pay that toll, which is advanced
mathematics, since my previous course of study did not prescribe those
requirements. One of the pitfalls of operating under the illusion of
completeness is thinking you see the entire picture and it is important to be
on guard of this with any frame. It is important to try to see the gaps and
limitations of any frame as well as why it would fit (Hoch, Kunreuther &
Gunther, 2001). Based on the toolkit, it is important to identify all
constraints, or any limitations you must accept. Focusing on the objective or
remembering the desired result you want (for example an advanced degree) can be
a helpful way to practice reframing. The portfolio perspective can also be a
tremendous help which suggests lying out all of the options. Once you have
those, you can choose which way to go.
What I learned about myself is
that in the past I was especially prone to being a hasty decision-maker and
oversimplified situations through my use of frames instead of spending time to
think through what I was doing. There is a lot of risk to continuing that
behavior and I have evolved in trying to be aware of these bear clamp sized
traps that are lurking around mental corners and walls. There is more than one
way to see anything and just because I am used to what I normally do does not
make it the best frame in which to view the world around me.
References:
Hoch, S., Kunreuther, H., &
Gunther, R. (2001). Wharton on making decisions. John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Johnson, D. D. P., & Fowler,
J. H. (2011). The evolution of overconfidence. Nature, 477(7364), 317-20.
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