Saturday, June 13, 2015

A633.2.3.RB- Butterfly Effect

If you asked someone what the Butterfly Effect is I would guess there would be two distinct answers. For a millennial like me I would have told you it is the movie starring Ashton Kutcher that came out in 2004. While the entire plot and outcome is a little shaky for me, the gist is that the main character wanted to change his life and the lives of those he cared about once they grew up because some of the things they either chose to do or endured set them on a course that left them with terrible lives. Kutcher’s character was able to go back in time and change one small event. The movie then flashed forward years later to their college years and he would see how one small change affected everything. Most of the time going back and pinpointing what went wrong changed things for the better for mostly everyone, but there would always be a flaw of something else that went wrong. For instance, once he stopped his friend from blowing up a mailbox with firecrackers and he ended up with severe life altering injuries. I believe the take away here is that it is the small choices can have a large impact.

Now that I have spent some time researching complexity science and theory I would put my money on it that the movie was inspired by Lorenz’s Strange Attractor which also became known as the Butterfly Effect based on the name he selected for his paper: Predictability: Does the Flap of a Butterfly’s Wings in Brazil Set Off a Tornado in Texas. It turns out that when graphing pressure, temperature, and wind speed that the simultaneous non-linear differential equations have an infinite number of possibilities. The graph itself looks like a butterfly which is why it earned the more common nickname (Obolensky, 2014). “In other words, when a situation has a great sensitivity to initial conditions a small change can have a  disproportionate effect” (Obolensky, 2014, p. 70). Examining the name of the paper, it is an interesting thought if something like the flap of a butterfly’s wings or even the absence of it would have such an impact. Previously I would have scoffed and said how ludicrous the notion is but I have learned that with the absence of bees humans would struggle to survive and eat after about five years. Earthquakes can produce tsunamis and even the Cynefin framework when discussing complexity notes that one change in a rainforest can drastically change the landscape and function due to the interrelatedness of the ecosystem (Snowden & Boone, 2007).

So, what if we bottled up this idea and started making small changes? Obolensky drew the conclusion that within complex organizations small changes can yield large results. He referenced several companies who have proven this idea. Even better I have seen this at work within my organization. The first example was set in motion several months before I started my position. Every term we would make announcements that students could enroll and some would pick their classes. It was odd that someone was pursuing a degree but not all that actively engaged throughout the year. Such is the plight of distance learners. Our leadership thought it would make a difference to do an outreach to each individual that was actively enrolled in the term to give them course suggestions and offer to assist with enrollment for the next term. We call this the term to term outreach. Sure enough we are still doing this because our retention made leaps and bounds of improvement. This is wonderful for our students because they are reaching their goal to graduate within a timely manner.

A second example is something that our team had not realized we could do!  We thought the Procedures Manual still noted that method of payment must be taken at the time of registration. We were enforcing that tuition assistance forms and payment already be made to register. While this kept our records tidy, it was not a great way to do business with our students. For lack of better analogy it was like holding the class they wanted over people’s heads and asking them to jump through the hoop to get it. That is not exactly encouraging if you examined the message… we want you to be a part of our institution and we are going to show you by making it difficult! It turns out the undergraduate team was not doing this and it made doing business with our students much easier. It was a breath of fresh air for the graduate advising team that we could enroll students and have the method of payment was in place by the first day of the term. Sure enough this also improved getting students into their classes.

Very recently we have seen a lot of changes. We have changed our Learning Management System from Blackboard to Canvas. To support our new LMS we have created what we are calling ERNIE 2.0 to support the new platform. If you were a student a year ago and came back to classes it would basically be unrecognizable. In a lot of ways it does create chaos at first. However, once everyone has acclimated to the changes it should be easier and better, thus allowing for more order than there was before. Hopefully this will make way for more growth. The implication of the first two examples of change is that you can use small strategic changes that can drive improvements, neither of which cost our department anything additional in the budget. It was not essential to throw globs of money at the problem to do something better, we took what we already had to work with and did it a little smarter. The lesson here is start with what you have to make small changes and watch what happens before deciding what big changes need to be implemented. You might end up surprised.

References:

Obolensky, N. (2014). Complex Adaptive Leadership: Embracing Paradox and Uncertainty (2nd ed.). Gower


Snowden, D.  & Boone, M. (2007).  A leader’s framework for decision making.  Harvard Business Review, 85(11), Retrieved from: https://hbr.org/2007/11/a-leaders-framework-for-decision-making%20

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